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The expected course of a disease: how likely it is to be cured, how long a person is likely to live, and how they are likely to feel. Always an estimate based on groups of similar patients, never a prediction for one person.
Prognosis in cancer depends chiefly on stage, then on grade, histology, molecular subtype, and the patient's fitness and age; it is expressed as survival rates (the proportion alive at five years) or median survival, drawn from registries and trials of past patients treated with past therapies, so it lags behind current treatment. Prognostic biomarkers (Ki-67, Oncotype DX recurrence score, ctDNA after surgery) refine the estimate and, importantly, help decide who needs more treatment and who can be spared it. Distinguishing prognostic from predictive is essential: a prognostic marker says how the disease will behave whatever you do, a predictive marker says whether a specific drug will help.
CONCORD is the evidence base for national cancer plans and for the statement that where you live changes your chance of surviving cancer. Its country tables are the benchmark health systems use to judge early diagnosis and treatment access.
This paper showed that the immune response to a cancer is part of its prognosis, not background noise, and it introduced the idea of the immune contexture that underlies both the Immunoscore and the biomarker work in immunotherapy.
Shares Allemani 2018: CONCORD-3, global surveillance of cancer survival 2000 to 2014, Incidence versus prevalence, Mortality.
Shares Incidence versus prevalence, Mortality.
Shares Incidence versus prevalence, Mortality.
Shares Incidence versus prevalence, Mortality.
Shares Incidence versus prevalence, Mortality.
Shares Incidence versus prevalence, Mortality.
Shares Incidence versus prevalence, Mortality.
Shares Incidence versus prevalence, Mortality.