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Market sizing is three numbers multiplied: how many people get the cancer, what share carry the target, and what share reach the treatment setting. All three already live in this corpus. This page multiplies them for 345 target and cancer pairs across 38 cancers, shows every input with its source, and reports a range rather than a point.
This is arithmetic on public inputs, not a forecast of treated patients or revenue. It ignores diagnosis rates, testing rates, access, competition, duration of therapy and price.
Prevalence figures come from the target pages and are mostly from Western cohorts. Stage at diagnosis (which drives the setting share) is later in most of the world, so the true advanced-disease share is higher outside high-income countries.
GLOBOCAN reports by organ site. Where a subtype share is applied, it is an editorial range with its source shown.
Incidence fetched 2026-09-08. Change a factor you disagree with by editing src/data/setting-shares.ts or the target’s prevalence row.
| Target | Parsed range | Addressable patients per year | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80-90 (IHC, any expression) | 80 to 90% | 953k to 1.42m | |
| 70-80 (Adenocarcinoma, any expression) | 70 to 80% | 834k to 1.27m | |
| 60-70 (IHC, moderate-high) | 60 to 70% | 714k to 1.11m | |
| 46-54 (Mutation) | 46 to 54% | 548k to 854k | |
| 29-43 (High-level amplification of the squamous lineage programme) | 29 to 43% | 345k to 680k | |
| 20-45 (Response by PD-L1 stratum (proxy)) | 20 to 45% | 238k to 712k | |
| 25-30 (Adenocarcinoma, any KRAS mutation) | 25 to 30% | 298k to 474k | |
| 25-30 (TPS >=50%) | 25 to 30% | 298k to 474k | |
| 20-30 (Squamous enriched) | 20 to 30% | 238k to 474k | |
| 20-25 (High expression (>=50% cells 2+/3+)) | 20 to 25% | 238k to 395k | |
| about 20 (AXL activation among EGFR-mutant lung cancers resistant to EGFR inhibitors) | 20% | 238k to 316k | |
| about 20 (FGFR1 amplification in squamous cell carcinoma of the lung) | 20% | 238k to 316k | |
| 15-20 (Homozygous deletion and inactivating mutation) | 15 to 20% | 179k to 316k | |
| 13-18 (Inactivating mutation) | 13 to 18% | 155k to 285k | |
| 15 (MTAP deletion) | 15% | 179k to 237k | |
| 11-18 (Inactivating mutation) | 11 to 18% | 131k to 285k | |
| 12-15 (Hotspot mutation in the KEAP1-binding degrons) | 12 to 15% | 143k to 237k | |
| 10-15 (Activating mutation (US/Europe)) | 10 to 15% | 119k to 237k | |
| 8-14 (High-level amplification (lineage survival gene)) | 8 to 14% | 95k to 221k | |
| 8-12 (Inactivating mutation) | 8 to 12% | 95k to 190k | |
| 7-11 (Inactivating mutation (splicing regulator)) | 7 to 11% | 83k to 174k | |
| 6-10 (Truncating and missense mutation (class 1 and class 2)) | 6 to 10% | 71k to 158k | |
| 5-10 (ATM loss/mutation (sensitising context)) | 5 to 10% | 60k to 158k | |
| 5-7 (Hotspot mutation (E545K, E542K, H1047R)) | 5 to 7% | 60k to 111k | |
| 3-5 (Rearrangement) | 3 to 5% | 36k to 79k | |
| 3.8 (DDR2 kinase mutation, Sanger sequencing of squamous cell lung cancers and cell lines) | 3.8% | 45k to 60k | |
| 3-4 (Exon 14 skipping) | 3 to 4% | 36k to 63k | |
| 2-4 (V600E and non-V600) | 2 to 4% | 24k to 63k | |
| 2-3 (ERBB2 exon 20 mutation) | 2 to 3% | 24k to 47k | |
| 1.7 (FISH, ROS1 rearrangement (18 of 1,073 NSCLC)) | 1.7% | 20k to 27k | |
| 1-2 (Fusion) | 1 to 2% | 12k to 32k | |
| 0.3 (Rearrangement, commonly CD74-NRG1, in invasive mucinous adenocarcinoma) | 0.3% | 3.6k to 4.7k | |
| 0.2 (NTRK1, NTRK2 or NTRK3 rearrangement) | 0.2% | 2.4k to 3.2k |
Incidence is GLOBOCAN 2022 new cases by country, summed for continents, the same data behind cases by country. Where GLOBOCAN reports an organ site broader than the OnCo cancer (all breast cancer, all lung cancer, all leukaemia), a sourced subtype share range is applied.
Prevalence is the figure recorded on each target page for that cancer, parsed into a range (“15-20”, “>95”, “~25”). Setting share is an editorial range per cancer in src/data/setting-shares.ts, informed by the SEER stage-at-diagnosis distribution plus relapse after early-stage treatment; 27 cancers have one.
This is the size of the biological population, not the treated or revenue-generating one: it ignores diagnosis and testing rates, line of therapy beyond the setting chosen, access, competing options, treatment duration and price. Prevalence figures are mostly from Western cohorts and some vary by ethnicity (EGFR in lung cancer, for instance). Stage at diagnosis is later outside high-income countries, so the advanced-disease share is understated there.
Disagree with a factor? Every one is a single line in a data file with a source next to it. The crowding index uses the same arithmetic.