{"entity":{"id":"paper-alcohol-cancer-burden-lancet-oncol-2021","kind":"paper","name":"Alcohol caused an estimated 741,000 cancers worldwide in 2020","aka":[],"tldr":"Building on the IARC classification of alcohol as a Group 1 carcinogen, this global modelling study attributed 4.1% of all new cancers in 2020 to drinking, three-quarters of them in men and the largest numbers in oesophageal, liver and breast cancer.","summary":"IARC Monographs volumes 44, 96 and 100E established alcoholic beverages, and the acetaldehyde derived from them, as Group 1 carcinogens with sufficient evidence for cancers of the oral cavity, pharynx, larynx, oesophagus (squamous), liver, colorectum and female breast. Rumgay and colleagues combined per-capita alcohol consumption estimates (with a 10-year lag) and relative risks from meta-analyses with GLOBOCAN 2020 incidence to estimate the attributable burden by country, sex and site.\n\nAn estimated 741,300 new cancers (4.1% of all cases) were attributable to alcohol in 2020; 76.7% were in men. Oesophageal (189,700), liver (154,700) and breast (98,300) cancers had the largest numbers. Heavy drinking accounted for most of the burden, but moderate drinking (up to two drinks a day) contributed around 100,000 cases.\n\nThe paper drove policy interest in alcohol labelling and pricing, and the 2023 WHO and 2025 US Surgeon General statements on alcohol and cancer.","asOf":"2026-09-08","links":[{"label":"DOI","url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S1470-2045(21)00279-5"},{"label":"IARC Monographs Volume 100E","url":"https://publications.iarc.who.int/122"}],"tags":[],"related":["idea-prev-alcohol-cancer-warning-labels","idea-prev-pharmacy-prevention-hub"],"cancers":["esophageal","hcc","breast-hr-positive","colorectal","head-and-neck"],"sections":["prevention"],"technologies":[],"targets":[],"drugs":[],"companies":[],"institutions":["iarc"],"pathways":[],"terms":[],"trials":[],"people":[],"bottlenecks":["b-prevention-adoption","b-misinformation","b-incentive-misalignment"],"keyPapers":[],"journals":["lancet-oncology"],"dependsOn":[],"notes":[],"journal":"Lancet Oncology","year":2021,"doi":"10.1016/S1470-2045(21)00279-5","pmid":"34270924","authors":"Rumgay H, Shield K, Charvat H, et al.","paperType":"observational","findings":["741,300 alcohol-attributable new cancers globally in 2020 (95% uncertainty interval 558,500-951,200), 4.1% of all cancers","76.7% of attributable cases were in men","Largest contributions: oesophagus 189,700; liver 154,700; female breast 98,300","Moderate drinking (less than 20 g/day) accounted for an estimated 103,100 cases (13.9% of the alcohol burden)"],"whatItMeans":"There is no safe level of alcohol for cancer risk, and the risk is highest for cancers of the mouth, throat, oesophagus, liver, bowel and breast. Public awareness is low; most people do not know alcohol causes breast cancer. Warning labels and minimum pricing are the policy levers being debated.","caveats":["Modelled estimates depend on consumption data of uneven quality and on relative risks from observational meta-analyses","Unrecorded alcohol consumption is poorly captured in many countries","Does not account for former drinkers or interactions with smoking","Population-level estimates say nothing about individual risk trajectories"],"changedPractice":false},"route":"/key-papers/paper-alcohol-cancer-burden-lancet-oncol-2021/","neighbours":{"idea":[{"id":"idea-prev-alcohol-cancer-warning-labels","kind":"idea","name":"Cancer warnings on alcohol labels, evaluated as a natural experiment","route":"/ideas/idea-prev-alcohol-cancer-warning-labels/"},{"id":"idea-prev-pharmacy-prevention-hub","kind":"idea","name":"Community pharmacies as one-stop cancer prevention hubs","route":"/ideas/idea-prev-pharmacy-prevention-hub/"}],"cancer":[{"id":"colorectal","kind":"cancer","name":"Colorectal cancer","route":"/cancers/colorectal/"},{"id":"head-and-neck","kind":"cancer","name":"Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma","route":"/cancers/head-and-neck/"},{"id":"hcc","kind":"cancer","name":"Hepatocellular carcinoma","route":"/cancers/hcc/"},{"id":"breast-hr-positive","kind":"cancer","name":"HR-positive / HER2-negative breast cancer","route":"/cancers/breast-hr-positive/"},{"id":"esophageal","kind":"cancer","name":"Oesophageal cancer","route":"/cancers/esophageal/"}],"section":[{"id":"prevention","kind":"section","name":"Prevention & Risk","route":"/fronts/prevention/"}],"institution":[{"id":"iarc","kind":"institution","name":"International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC / WHO)","route":"/institutions/iarc/"}],"bottleneck":[{"id":"b-incentive-misalignment","kind":"bottleneck","name":"Incentives reward me-too drugs and marginal gains","route":"/bottlenecks/b-incentive-misalignment/"},{"id":"b-misinformation","kind":"bottleneck","name":"Misinformation and unproven therapies","route":"/bottlenecks/b-misinformation/"},{"id":"b-prevention-adoption","kind":"bottleneck","name":"Prevention we already have is not deployed","route":"/bottlenecks/b-prevention-adoption/"}],"journal":[{"id":"lancet-oncology","kind":"journal","name":"The Lancet Oncology","route":"/journals/lancet-oncology/"}]}}