{"entity":{"id":"idea-tr2-target-failure-index","kind":"idea","name":"A target de-risking index that counts failures as well as successes","aka":[],"tldr":"For each drug target, show how many programmes have been tried against it and how many failed, so new teams know what they are up against.","summary":"Target prioritisation platforms (Open Targets) weight positive evidence. A complementary index that aggregates discontinued programmes, failed trials and deposited negative preclinical results per target and indication, with reasons where known, would give a Bayesian prior: a target with eight failed programmes and no success should require a stronger hypothesis than one never tried. Publicly available pipeline data makes a first version feasible now.","asOf":"2026-09-08","links":[{"label":"Open Targets","url":"https://platform.opentargets.org/"}],"tags":[],"related":["open-targets","idea-tr2-failure-taxonomy","idea-tr2-preclinical-negative-registry"],"cancers":[],"sections":[],"technologies":[],"targets":[],"drugs":[],"companies":[],"institutions":[],"pathways":[],"terms":[],"trials":[],"people":[],"bottlenecks":["b-negative-results","b-undruggable-targets"],"keyPapers":[],"journals":[],"dependsOn":[],"notes":[],"hypothesis":"Targets in the highest-failure decile will continue to attract new programmes at the same rate as others unless the index is visible; where visible, new programme starts against them will fall by at least a quarter unless accompanied by a new mechanistic rationale.","rationale":"Herding on a few targets (IDO1, CD47, TIGIT) with repeated failure is a documented pattern. Making the failure count visible changes the decision calculus.","test":"Build the index for 300 oncology targets from public pipeline and trial data; publish; track new programme initiations by index decile over three years.","maturity":"speculative","actor":"data","cost":"small","horizonYears":2},"route":"/ideas/idea-tr2-target-failure-index/","neighbours":{"collection":[{"id":"open-targets","kind":"collection","name":"Open Targets Platform","route":"/collections/open-targets/"}],"idea":[{"id":"idea-tr2-failure-taxonomy","kind":"idea","name":"A machine-readable taxonomy of why cancer drugs fail","route":"/ideas/idea-tr2-failure-taxonomy/"},{"id":"idea-tr2-preclinical-negative-registry","kind":"idea","name":"A registry for preclinical experiments that did not work","route":"/ideas/idea-tr2-preclinical-negative-registry/"}],"bottleneck":[{"id":"b-negative-results","kind":"bottleneck","name":"Failures are hidden","route":"/bottlenecks/b-negative-results/"},{"id":"b-undruggable-targets","kind":"bottleneck","name":"The undruggable drivers","route":"/bottlenecks/b-undruggable-targets/"}]}}