{"entity":{"id":"idea-tr2-combination-forecast-tournament","kind":"idea","name":"An open forecasting tournament on which combination trials will succeed","aka":[],"tldr":"Ask experts and models to predict, in public, which registered combination trials will meet their endpoint. Track who is right, and use the best forecasters to decide what to fund.","summary":"Forecasting tournaments (Good Judgment Project, the replication-prediction markets in psychology) show that aggregated, scored predictions outperform committees. Applying this to registered oncology combination trials would create a calibrated prior for each combination, expose which mechanistic arguments actually predict success, and give funders a quantitative tool for prioritisation.","asOf":"2026-09-08","links":[{"label":"Bottleneck evidence (Too many combinations to test): Palmer & Sorger, Combination cancer therapy can confer benefit via patient-to-patient variability without drug additivity or synergy (Cell 2017)","url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2017.11.009"}],"tags":[],"related":["clinicaltrials-gov","idea-tr2-synergy-ranking-engine"],"cancers":[],"sections":[],"technologies":[],"targets":[],"drugs":[],"companies":[],"institutions":[],"pathways":[],"terms":[],"trials":[],"people":[],"bottlenecks":["b-combination-space","b-funding-allocation"],"keyPapers":["paper-palmer-cell"],"journals":[],"dependsOn":[],"notes":[],"hypothesis":"Aggregated tournament forecasts will discriminate successful from failed combination trials with an area under the curve above 0.75, better than expert panels or sponsor stage-gates.","rationale":"Replication prediction markets forecast which psychology findings would replicate with roughly 70% accuracy. Trial outcomes are similarly forecastable from design, prior data and sponsor behaviour.","test":"Run a two-year tournament on 100 registered phase 2 and 3 combination trials with readouts due; score Brier and discrimination against outcomes.","maturity":"speculative","actor":"data","cost":"small","horizonYears":2},"route":"/ideas/idea-tr2-combination-forecast-tournament/","neighbours":{"collection":[{"id":"clinicaltrials-gov","kind":"collection","name":"ClinicalTrials.gov","route":"/collections/clinicaltrials-gov/"}],"idea":[{"id":"idea-tr2-synergy-ranking-engine","kind":"idea","name":"An open engine that ranks every drug pair by predicted synergy before anyone runs a trial","route":"/ideas/idea-tr2-synergy-ranking-engine/"}],"bottleneck":[{"id":"b-funding-allocation","kind":"bottleneck","name":"Funding follows fashion, not burden","route":"/bottlenecks/b-funding-allocation/"},{"id":"b-combination-space","kind":"bottleneck","name":"Too many combinations to test","route":"/bottlenecks/b-combination-space/"}],"paper":[{"id":"paper-palmer-cell","kind":"paper","name":"Combination Cancer Therapy Can Confer Benefit via Patient-to-Patient Variability without Drug Additivity or Synergy","route":"/key-papers/paper-palmer-cell/"}]}}