{"entity":{"id":"idea-prev-pancreas-ai-prediagnostic-ct","kind":"idea","name":"AI that spots pancreatic cancer on scans taken a year before diagnosis","aka":[],"tldr":"Pancreatic cancer is often visible in hindsight on earlier scans. Software trained on those pre-diagnostic scans could flag subtle changes while surgery is still possible.","summary":"Retrospective studies (Mayo Clinic, Johns Hopkins FELIX project) show deep learning detects pancreatic cancer on pre-diagnostic CTs 3-36 months before clinical diagnosis with high AUC. Propose training on multi-institution pre-diagnostic scan cohorts and prospective deployment on abdominal CTs of patients over 50 with new-onset diabetes or weight loss.","asOf":"2026-09-08","links":[{"label":"Bottleneck evidence (The hardest cancers are found late): Crosby et al., Early detection of cancer (Science 2022)","url":"https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aay9040"}],"tags":[],"related":[],"cancers":["pancreatic"],"sections":["early-detection","imaging"],"technologies":["ct","radiology-ai-screening"],"targets":[],"drugs":[],"companies":[],"institutions":["johns-hopkins","mayo-clinic"],"pathways":[],"terms":[],"trials":[],"people":[],"bottlenecks":["b-early-detection"],"keyPapers":["paper-crosby-science"],"journals":[],"dependsOn":[],"notes":[],"hypothesis":"Prospective deployment in high-risk CT populations detects resectable (stage I-II) pancreatic cancer in at least half of flagged true positives, versus roughly 15% resectable at usual diagnosis.","rationale":"Pancreatic cancer survival is stage-dependent and the pre-diagnostic window is documented; incidence in new-onset diabetes over 50 (about 1%) is high enough to justify targeted use.","test":"Prospective cohort of 20,000 abdominal CTs in the target population, with two-year registry follow-up for sensitivity and PPV.","maturity":"preclinical-evidence","actor":"research","cost":"medium","horizonYears":4},"route":"/ideas/idea-prev-pancreas-ai-prediagnostic-ct/","neighbours":{"cancer":[{"id":"ipmn-cystic-precursors","kind":"cancer","name":"Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm and other pancreatic cystic precursors","route":"/cancers/ipmn-cystic-precursors/"},{"id":"pancreatic","kind":"cancer","name":"Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma","route":"/cancers/pancreatic/"}],"section":[{"id":"early-detection","kind":"section","name":"Early Detection & Screening","route":"/fronts/early-detection/"},{"id":"imaging","kind":"section","name":"Imaging","route":"/fronts/imaging/"}],"technology":[{"id":"radiology-ai-screening","kind":"technology","name":"AI in radiology","route":"/technologies/radiology-ai-screening/"},{"id":"ct","kind":"technology","name":"CT (computed tomography)","route":"/technologies/ct/"}],"institution":[{"id":"johns-hopkins","kind":"institution","name":"Johns Hopkins Hospital / Sidney Kimmel Comprehensive Cancer Center","route":"/institutions/johns-hopkins/"},{"id":"mayo-clinic","kind":"institution","name":"Mayo Clinic","route":"/institutions/mayo-clinic/"}],"bottleneck":[{"id":"b-early-detection","kind":"bottleneck","name":"The hardest cancers are found late","route":"/bottlenecks/b-early-detection/"}],"paper":[{"id":"paper-crosby-science","kind":"paper","name":"Early detection of cancer","route":"/key-papers/paper-crosby-science/"}]}}