{"entity":{"id":"idea-bio2-io-biomarker-data-commons","kind":"idea","name":"Pool every immunotherapy trial's biomarker data into one commons","aka":[],"tldr":"Dozens of trials have collected immune, genomic and imaging data on the same drugs. Nobody can analyse them together, so the answer stays hidden in fragments.","summary":"Predicting checkpoint response is a small-data problem imposed by fragmentation, not by biology: individual trials have hundreds of patients, while the aggregate is tens of thousands with multimodal data. A federated commons with harmonised data models, standardised endpoints and privacy-preserving analysis, backed by a condition of funding or of approval, would allow multimodal models to be trained and, importantly, externally validated.","asOf":"2026-09-08","links":[{"label":"Bottleneck evidence (No one can predict who responds to immunotherapy): Haslam & Prasad (JAMA Network Open 2019)","url":"https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2019.2535"}],"tags":[],"related":["idea-multimodal-foundation-model","cbioportal","genie","clinicaltrials-gov","oncokb"],"cancers":[],"sections":[],"technologies":["single-cell-spatial","pathology-foundation-model","rna-seq"],"targets":[],"drugs":[],"companies":[],"institutions":[],"pathways":[],"terms":["tmb","tps","real-world-evidence"],"trials":[],"people":[],"bottlenecks":["b-immunotherapy-response","b-data-silos","b-ai-validation"],"keyPapers":["paper-haslam-jama-netw-open"],"journals":[],"dependsOn":[],"notes":[],"hypothesis":"A pooled multimodal dataset of more than 10,000 checkpoint-treated patients yields a validated predictor that outperforms PD-L1 and tumour mutational burden by a clinically meaningful margin in prospective use.","rationale":"Every previous jump in biological prediction followed data aggregation rather than method novelty, from genome-wide association studies to protein structure prediction. Existing single-trial models fail external validation, which is the signature of insufficient training diversity.","test":"Start with three sponsors and two academic consortia contributing harmonised data for one tumour type, and publish an externally validated model plus the harmonisation standard itself.","maturity":"speculative","actor":"data","cost":"medium","horizonYears":5},"route":"/ideas/idea-bio2-io-biomarker-data-commons/","neighbours":{"idea":[{"id":"idea-multimodal-foundation-model","kind":"idea","name":"Patient-level multimodal foundation models for treatment selection","route":"/ideas/idea-multimodal-foundation-model/"}],"collection":[{"id":"genie","kind":"collection","name":"AACR Project GENIE","route":"/collections/genie/"},{"id":"cbioportal","kind":"collection","name":"cBioPortal for Cancer Genomics","route":"/collections/cbioportal/"},{"id":"clinicaltrials-gov","kind":"collection","name":"ClinicalTrials.gov","route":"/collections/clinicaltrials-gov/"},{"id":"oncokb","kind":"collection","name":"OncoKB","route":"/collections/oncokb/"}],"technology":[{"id":"pathology-foundation-model","kind":"technology","name":"Pathology & radiology foundation models","route":"/technologies/pathology-foundation-model/"},{"id":"rna-seq","kind":"technology","name":"RNA sequencing & expression profiling","route":"/technologies/rna-seq/"},{"id":"single-cell-spatial","kind":"technology","name":"Single-cell & spatial profiling","route":"/technologies/single-cell-spatial/"}],"term":[{"id":"real-world-evidence","kind":"term","name":"Real-world evidence","route":"/terms/real-world-evidence/"},{"id":"tmb","kind":"term","name":"Tumour mutational burden (TMB)","route":"/terms/tmb/"},{"id":"tps","kind":"term","name":"Tumour proportion score (TPS)","route":"/terms/tps/"}],"bottleneck":[{"id":"b-ai-validation","kind":"bottleneck","name":"AI that is built but not validated or deployed","route":"/bottlenecks/b-ai-validation/"},{"id":"b-data-silos","kind":"bottleneck","name":"Data silos","route":"/bottlenecks/b-data-silos/"},{"id":"b-immunotherapy-response","kind":"bottleneck","name":"No one can predict who responds to immunotherapy","route":"/bottlenecks/b-immunotherapy-response/"}],"paper":[{"id":"paper-haslam-jama-netw-open","kind":"paper","name":"Estimation of the Percentage of US Patients With Cancer Who Are Eligible for and Respond to Checkpoint Inhibitor Immunotherapy Drugs","route":"/key-papers/paper-haslam-jama-netw-open/"}]}}