{"entity":{"id":"idea-acc-open-oncology-workforce-model","kind":"idea","name":"An open global model of cancer workforce supply and demand by country","aka":[],"tldr":"No one knows exactly how many oncologists, nurses, physicists and pathologists each country has or needs. A public, regularly updated model would let governments plan training and spot shortfalls years ahead.","summary":"Estimates of oncology workforce density are scattered across surveys and often a decade old. An open model combining registry burden (GLOBOCAN), treatment utilisation rates, professional-body registers, and training-pipeline data would project supply and demand by profession and country to 2040 and would show the effect of training decisions. The model would be maintained as a public good with annual updates.","asOf":"2026-09-08","links":[{"label":"Bottleneck evidence (Not enough oncologists, nurses, pathologists, physicists): Yang et al., Projected supply of and demand for oncologists and radiation oncologists through 2025 (JOP 2014)","url":"https://doi.org/10.1200/JOP.2013.001319"}],"tags":[],"related":["globocan"],"cancers":[],"sections":[],"technologies":[],"targets":[],"drugs":[],"companies":[],"institutions":["iarc"],"pathways":[],"terms":[],"trials":[],"people":[],"bottlenecks":["b-workforce","b-data-silos"],"keyPapers":["paper-yang-j-oncol-pract"],"journals":[],"dependsOn":[],"notes":[],"hypothesis":"Countries using the model to set training quotas will reduce the projected 2035 shortfall in at least two professions by more than 20% relative to business-as-usual, as measured by subsequent registration data.","rationale":"Health workforce planning models exist for nurses and physicians in general; oncology has the burden and utilisation data needed but has never assembled them.","test":"Build and publish the model; validate historical projections against current registers in ten countries; track policy uptake and quota changes.","maturity":"speculative","actor":"data","cost":"small","horizonYears":2},"route":"/ideas/idea-acc-open-oncology-workforce-model/","neighbours":{"collection":[{"id":"globocan","kind":"collection","name":"GLOBOCAN / Global Cancer Observatory","route":"/collections/globocan/"}],"institution":[{"id":"iarc","kind":"institution","name":"International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC / WHO)","route":"/institutions/iarc/"}],"bottleneck":[{"id":"b-data-silos","kind":"bottleneck","name":"Data silos","route":"/bottlenecks/b-data-silos/"},{"id":"b-workforce","kind":"bottleneck","name":"Not enough oncologists, nurses, pathologists, physicists","route":"/bottlenecks/b-workforce/"}],"paper":[{"id":"paper-yang-j-oncol-pract","kind":"paper","name":"Projected supply of and demand for oncologists and radiation oncologists through 2025: an aging, better-insured population will result in shortage","route":"/key-papers/paper-yang-j-oncol-pract/"}]}}