# Rahib 2014: projecting US cancer incidence and deaths to 2030

Source: https://onco.cc/key-papers/paper-rahib-projecting-cancer-deaths-2030-cancerres-2014/  
OnCo record `paper-rahib-projecting-cancer-deaths-2030-cancerres-2014` (Key paper). Data CC BY-NC 4.0, attribute "Data from OnCo (onco.cc)"; commercial use needs a licence.

## TL;DR

A projection that by 2030 pancreatic and liver cancers would overtake breast, prostate and colorectal cancers to become the second and third leading causes of cancer death in the United States, because progress against the common cancers was not being matched in these two.

## Summary

Rahib and colleagues at the Pancreatic Cancer Action Network combined US population projections with registry trends in incidence and mortality to project cancer cases and deaths to 2030. They forecast that lung cancer would remain the leading cause of cancer death, that pancreatic and liver cancers would rise to second and third place, and that thyroid, melanoma and uterine cancers would be among the fastest-growing in incidence, while colorectal cancer would fall in rank. The paper was widely used to argue for research funding directed at cancers with stagnant outcomes.

## Fields

- Kind: Key paper
- Last checked: 2026-09-08
- Journal: Cancer Research
- Year: 2014
- DOI: 10.1158/0008-5472.CAN-14-0155
- Authors: Rahib L, Smith BD, Aizenberg R, Rosenzweig AB, Fleshman JM, Matrisian LM.
- Findings: Projected that pancreatic and liver cancers would become the second and third leading causes of US cancer death by 2030, after lung cancer.; Breast, prostate and lung cancers projected to remain the most commonly diagnosed; thyroid, melanoma and uterine cancers among the fastest rising in incidence.; Projections driven by an ageing population combined with flat or rising death rates for pancreatic and liver cancer.
- What it means: This paper reframed pancreatic and liver cancer as the coming burden and is cited in most arguments for investing in them. Its pancreatic cancer projection has been tracking close to reality in the years since.
- Caveats: Projections assume that recent trends continue and cannot anticipate new treatments or screening.; US-specific.

## Sources

- Full text (DOI): https://doi.org/10.1158/0008-5472.CAN-14-0155

## Connected records

- key papers: [Estimated Projection of US Cancer Incidence and Death to 2040](https://onco.cc/key-papers/paper-rahib-projection-us-cancer-2040-jama-netw-open-2021/), [Siegel 2024: Cancer statistics, 2024, the American Cancer Society's annual US report](https://onco.cc/key-papers/paper-siegel-cancer-statistics-2024-cacancer-2024/)
- cancers: [Colorectal cancer](https://onco.cc/cancers/colorectal/), [Hepatocellular carcinoma](https://onco.cc/cancers/hcc/), [Metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma](https://onco.cc/cancers/metastatic-pdac/), [Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma](https://onco.cc/cancers/pancreatic/)
- terms: [Incidence versus prevalence](https://onco.cc/terms/incidence-vs-prevalence/), [Mortality](https://onco.cc/terms/mortality/)
- roadmaps: [Pancreatic cancer roadmap: from Whipple's operation to gemcitabine, FOLFIRINOX, adjuvant chemotherapy, PARP inhibition, KRAS inhibition, vaccines and the surveillance question](https://onco.cc/roadmaps/pancreatic-roadmap/)

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